Last year about 88,000 working holidaymakers qualified to stay on for a second or third year. Under the Government's plan, there will be 50,000 places.

Some of the people who miss out are working for you right now.

On 17 September 2026, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke announced that second and third year Working Holiday Maker visas will move to a ballot. Second year places will be capped at 45,000, against about 57,000 who qualified last year. Third year places will be capped at 5,000, against about 31,000. That is 38,000 fewer places, and a third year cut of more than 80%.

The short version

• Backpackers still have to do their regional work. Under the plan, doing it gets them into a draw, not a visa.
• Regional construction and mining both count as that work, so this is a site problem, not just a farm problem.
• The third year cut hits the most experienced backpackers hardest.
• Irish workers are more exposed than British ones, and more of them have been staying on.
• It isn't law yet. The time to plan is before it is.

What is changing, and what isn't yet

Backpackers still need 88 days of specified work for a second visa and six months for a third. The difference is what the days are worth. Under the ballot they make you eligible for a draw rather than guaranteeing the next visa.

One part has already landed. On 23 September, Home Affairs said most working holiday applications would now take an average of about three months.

The ballot itself is still a proposal. As of 28 October it was listed as "not yet in effect", with no regulation made and no start date published. The Government says it is still talking with industry. Four industry bodies have called for proper consultation, and the Coalition has committed to scrapping the ballot.

The detail could still move. The direction is clear enough to plan around.

What it could cost

Industry has put big numbers on it:



• $1.86 billion in direct lost wages, from the four industry bodies.
• 43% fewer longer stay backpackers in the regions and $560 million less visitor spending a year, from the Australian Tourism Industry Council.
• About $4.68 billion spent in Australia by working holidaymakers each year, from the National Farmers' Federation.

These come from groups arguing against the change, so treat them as the top of the range. The direction doesn't depend on the exact figure. Fewer backpackers staying longer means fewer workers and less money in the same regional towns.

Why construction, civil and mining feel this

Most of the coverage has been about harvests and hotels. Under the current rules, construction and mining in regional Australia both count as specified work for a 417 visa. That covers building, heavy and civil engineering construction, and mining and exploration support work.

It lands on an industry that is already short. Master Builders Australia puts construction 141,000 skilled workers short today, and 935,600 short by 2035 if nothing changes. We broke those numbers down in The Construction Workforce Gap, By The Numbers.

The third year cut is the one to watch. To qualify, a backpacker has already done six months of specified work on top of their first 88 days. If that work was on site, they needed a White Card to be there. They know the site, the crew and the job. Those are the workers a supervisor most wants to keep, and a 5,000 place national cap sends most of them home.

The Irish are the group to watch

Ireland has been one of the biggest sources of working holidaymakers in the country.

• About 90,000 young Irish have been granted a 417 visa since the borders reopened in February 2021.
• First visas to Irish citizens rose from 10,491 in 2021-22 to 24,165 in 2024-25.
• Irish passport holders make up 15.2% of applications, second only to the UK.

More of them have been staying on. Irish applications for a second visa rose 28% to 9,585 in 2024-25. Applications for a third visa went from 1,000 to 3,692. Put that next to a 5,000 place cap for every nationality combined.

The Irish are also more exposed than the British. UK passport holders can already get a second or third visa without doing specified work. Irish passport holders still have to do the regional days, and under a ballot those days may get them nothing.

That uncertainty is already changing decisions. Sydney migration agent Fred Molloy told The Irish Times the ballot's main issue is "the uncertainty it creates", and that visa holders are reconsidering.

The demand hasn't gone away. Another migration agent told the paper "people are still going to want to come to Australia", and construction is a priority sector in the refocused migration program. For a good Irish worker already on your site, the working holiday visa is no longer a reliable way to keep them. If you want them past their current visa, talk to a registered migration agent about the longer term options now, while they are still here.

What it could mean for hiring

Our read, based on the figures above.

Regional crews get harder to cover at short notice. Backpackers have been the flexible pool for shutdowns, peaks and short regional jobs. A smaller pool on three month processing gives you less of that.

Your most experienced backpackers leave first. The third year cap cuts hardest at the people with the most site time, and the Irish figures show that group has been growing.

Local workers get more contested. Employers who lose backpacker crews will chase the same local, interstate and FIFO candidates, in an industry already 141,000 people short. Expect longer searches and firmer rate conversations.

What we're doing about it

The ballot shrinks one pool. Our job is to make sure our clients aren't relying on it.

Bringing in New Zealanders. New Zealanders sit outside the working holiday system entirely. An NZ passport gets a Special Category Visa on arrival, with no ballot, no regional days and no application fee. More of them are already coming: 47,900 people moved from New Zealand to Australia in the year to March 2026. Through our Work in Australia from NZ program we are actively talking to New Zealand tradespeople, civil crews, plant operators and labourers about work here.

Labour hire for the gaps. Our labour hire team covers peaks, shutdowns and short projects, so a visa running out doesn't stop the job.

Permanent hires for the people you want to keep. Site supervisors, foremen, operators and trades, recruited permanently across construction, civil infrastructure and mining and resources.

Looking across states. Local, interstate, FIFO, DIDO and New Zealand. With teams in Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide, we can search more than one market at once rather than waiting for one to free up.

A hiring checklist for the next three months

1. List every worker on a 417 or 462 visa. Note their nationality, their visa end date, and whether they're on a second or third year.
2. Flag the ones you can't afford to lose. Supervisors, operators, anyone with tickets. Those are your first conversations.
3. Get migration advice early for the keepers. A registered migration agent can tell you whether a longer term visa is realistic.
4. Plan your peaks now. With processing at around three months, anyone you need for a February shutdown should be lodged well before Christmas.
5. Line up the replacements before you need them. If you need a construction recruitment agency, a labour hire crew, or a mining or civil recruiter who can look past the backpacker pool, tell us the role, the site and the start date.

What to watch

The regulation itself. Until it is made, there is no start date, no detail on how the ballot will run, and no answer on what happens to people who have already done their days.

Our read is that the third year cap is the change with teeth. For construction, civil and mining employers, it removes most of the experienced backpacker workforce in one step. The Irish are where you will notice it first.